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 | Fracture heals up: Irrelevance of small parties Our Correspondent So, all the predictions of a gravely fractured mandate and the smaller players calling the shots have gone for a six. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), at the time of writing this report, may not have got a clear majority but there is no lack of clarity either about which grouping would form the government at the Centre or about the next prime minister. The UPA is all set to retain power and Manmohan Singh will have his second go at the helm, as per the trends and results of the Lok Sabha elections announced today. This is in sharp contrast to the situation on May 13, 2004, when the results of the 14th Lok Sabha polls came out. Nobody was certain about the prime minister and where the requisite numbers would come from. May 16, 2009, however, is fundamentally different. Today, there are no anxieties about political stability, about the impact of political uncertainties over the economy. Quite the contrary, people have already started speculating about the surge of Sensex when it opens on Monday. There is a sense of relief on two counts. First, there will be a government. And, second, that the Left is out of the reckoning, its electoral strength coming down less than half of what it had five years ago. Thus, economic reforms would not suffer the Left’s torpedoes. Another feature of the results is the substantial shrinking, if not disappearance or complete marginalisation, of smaller and regional parties. The small party bosses and satraps who were hoping to play kingmakers were in for a shock as their numbers shrunk to 79. There was a distinct, though not major, move towards national parties. The Congress, with 205 seats, and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJPs’), with 116, make 321 seats. In 2004, the number was 283 (Congress with 145 and the BJP, 138). In fact, this is the Congress’ best performance after 1991. Interestingly, Manmohan Singh will be the first prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to get back to office after a full five-year term. The Congress has confirmed his name for the top post. A major change in public and even Congress perception has come regarding Manmohan Singh. In 2004, he occupied the top office by the grace and choice of party president and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi. He was the chosen one—not the elected one or even the selected one, for it was she, and not some panel, that reposed faith in him. Even now Singh is not elected by the UPA or the Congress—hid did not choose to get elected to the Lok Sabha—but he surely is much more than Sonia’s chosen one. He has acquired considerable political stature. Opinion polls, whatever worth they have, showed him to make a better prime minister than others. Manmohan campaigned in many a rally. He made scathing comments on his arch rival, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate LK Advani. He was ruthless in countering the allegations of being a ‘weak prime minister.’ He can no longer claim to be ‘apolitical’ (By the way, he also showed his uncanny understanding of the political situation when he called the bluff of the Left on the Indo-US civil nuclear deal and was proved right). Politician Manmohan Singh has arrived. This becomes evident from Congress spokesperson Jayanti Natarajan’s remark, “It is the leadership of Dr Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi that has helped the UPA win.” Earlier, Congress leaders’ eulogy was confined to Soniaji’s persona. Quite clearly, unlike 2004, it is not Sonia’s and only Sonia’s victory; it is also Manmohan’s victory. And it is also Rahul Gandhi’s victory. The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty scion has proved that his road-shows, after all, were more than media management. With the Congress getting one score seats in Uttar Pradesh, some credit of it should go to him. A big loser is UP Chief Minister and Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati, who was hoping to do an Obama in India. The BJP was shell-shocked. For some time, it was in a state of denial. Even at 11.30 a.m., when trends or results of almost all seats had come out, party spokesman Ravi Shankar Prasad did not conceded defeat. He said, “As of now, Congress is leading. Let’s wait for results.” The saffron party is yet to come out of the show and awe. Posted on : 5/17/2009 Mail this article to your friend |